RAPES: NUMBERS IN QUESTION

Jacques Marlino (France 2)

Le Point March 13, 1993 (no.1069)

(Translated from French into English by Vesna Crnjanski)

There was a time of horror. Then, the time of doubt. And finally, a time of "malaise". The time of horror took place between November 1992 and the end of January 1993. First, there were rumors, then official reports, indicating that between 20,000 and 40,000 Muslim women were raped by Serbs. The time of doubt came right after that, when, after using some common sense, one questioned the numbers themselves and their sudden appearance. Today, we are at a time of malaise: all those who, in France, work on ex- Yugoslavia, know that those numbers are false, because they are not based on a serious inquiry. Everybody knows it, but does not dare say it. It is difficult to go backwards!

First, rumors appear towards the end of November 92. They inflate very fast and take enough momentum to have the topic put on the agenda of the European summit in Edimbourg, December 11. Heads of State and governments meeting in the Scottish capital, are stunned by what they hear, and decide to send to Croatia and Bosnia a fact-finding commission. Members of the commission are quickly selected. The commission is headed by a former British diplomat, lady Anne Warburton, president of Lucy Cavendish College in Cambridge. The commission is comprised of six women, among them Simone Veil. They go to Zagreb and stay there only for four days, from December 20 to 24. After the holidays and the writing of the report, everything is ready for the public announcement of the results at a press conference on January 8, 1993, in Bruxelles. The day before, late into the night, a serious discussion opposes members of the commission. Simone Veil stresses the weaknesses of the inquiry, advises caution and is astonished by the virulence of the German representative.

Simone Veil is not listened at, and in front of the journalists it is Anne Warburton who speaks. She takes a couple of precautions, but estimates to 20,000 the number of Muslim and Croatian women raped by Serb militia. The number is immediately broadcast by radios and spread by press agencies. The headlines of the newspaper Liberation read: "Systematic rape. The report that accuses the Serbs". The paper Le Figaro gives the information in conditional but the magazine Paris-Match makes a double page with a picture of three women crying, and a title: "Like them 60,000 women in Bosnia have been raped by Serbs."

The American press (Newsweek) gives the numbers of 30,000 to 50,000 rapes and complements the information by giving its sources: the Bosnian commission of war crimes and the Interior Ministry of Bosnia-Herzegovina. As if these two government bodies, active participants in the conflict and isolated in Sarajevo, could have some credibility!

The numbers have circulated in the world before anyone has actually read the report of the European Commission. This report, classified as confidential, is however interesting to read.

The report remarks first that the mandate of the mission is limited to Muslim victims. Serbian women are automatically excluded from the inquiry. The report then indicates its sources: leaders of the religious Catholic and Muslim communities, representatives of Croatian and Bosnian governments and local and international non-governmental organizations. There are no direct witnesses' accounts by the victims themselves: the commission collects rumors, what others say.

A second fact-finding commission, sent this time by the United Nations and headed by Tadeusz Mazowicki, continues the work from January 10 to 17. The commission's report is given to the Security Council on February 10 under the reference E/CN4/1993/50. This reports mentions thirty direct witnesses' accounts of raped women, specifying that the women in question are Croat, Muslim and Serb. It evaluates to 19 the number of pregnancies after rape and, estimating that there would be one pregnancy for 100 rapes (on what criteria are these estimates based?), it gives the number, a total of 12,000 of rapes.

As a special envoy, Jerome Bony was send to inquire in the field traveling to Tuzla, a town mentioned in all the reports. He tells about his astonishment in a France 2 program on February 4th: "When I was at 50 kilometers from Tuzla, I was told: "Go to the gymnasium of Tuzla, there are 4,000 raped women." At 20 kilometers, the number diminished to 400. At 10 kilometers, it was only 40. And in Tuzla, I met only 4 women who wanted to witness."