The main obstacle in implementing the Dayton-Paris accord is the refusal of President Karadzic and General Mladic to appear before the Hague Tribunal.

The Dayton agreement contains some fundamental flaws from its very inception. Simultaneously, the list of developments practically obstructing it is long, and includes limitations on the freedom of movement imposed by all sides, continuing presence of large numbers of foreign Islamic fighters, refusal of Croat and Muslim forces to release all POWs, and the blatant human rights violations in the Serbian Sarajevo districts recently handed over to Muslim administration. Most importantly, the much advertised "cornerstone of the Dayton accord", the Muslim-Croat Federation, remains as fictitious as ever; lacking an immediate anti-Serb military agenda, it is very likely to stay that way, which does not bode well for the peace accord in general.

Testing the letter and spirit of Dayton in Mostar:
Serbs unable to return, Muslims and Croats unable to live together

Serbs fleeing ancestral homes in Sarajevo, just prior to transfer of rule.
In the words of Gen. Jean Rene Bachelet, Commander of the French Blue Helmets,
they "could opt either for coffins or suitcases".

"The United States said it has 'extremely disturbing reports' of the possible complicity of Bosnian government officials in what NATO forces say is a terrorist camp it raided in a Sarajevo suburb. Pentagon sources said three Iranians and eight Bosnian Muslims were taken into custody. [...]

NATO said it contained an 'extensive armory' of handguns, explosives and rocket-launchers. Pentagon sources said there was 'clear circumstantial evidence' the group was planning possible attacks on NATO forces.

'I think it's an abomination ... clearly terrorist training activities,' [U.S. Adm. Leighton] Smith said. He cited a child's toy with plastic explosives in a detonator inserted in it. He said the device he was designed to 'blow a child's foot off' when stepped on. [...]

Under the Dayton peace accord, all 'foreign' soldiers were to have left Bosnia by January 19, and the Bosnian government had given IFOR some assurance that no more Iranian mujahadeen soldiers remained inside Bosnian territory. Yet after the raid, one Pentagon official said, 'You have to assume the Bosnian government was aware of this operation.'

Pentagon officials said they don't know how many Islamic fighters from Iran and other countries are still in Bosnia, in violation of the Dayton peace agreement. One Pentagon estimate puts the number at about 100 Islamic mujahadeen, and between 100 and 200 Iranian Revolutionary Guards. "

"[...] In the most damaging recent incident, European military intelligence services discovered the State Department had given the Sarajevo authorities information about Iranian covert operations which had been gathered in a Nato operation.

The European intelligence services had wanted to stage a series of dramatic raids on suspected Iranian training camps, similar to a highly-publicised swoop on an alleged camp near the town of Fojnica in February.

The raids would have been aimed at highlighting Bosnian non-compliance with the Dayton peace accord, which stipulates the total withdrawal of foreign forces. This would have had the effect of diminishing political pressure on I-For to take a more aggressive posture against the Bosnian Serbs and, in particular, to arrest the separatist leaders, Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic.

[...] The US government, on the other hand, is understood to be anxious to play down the Iranian role, at a time when Congress is increasingly sceptical about plans to arm and train the Bosnian army. The Bosnian programme has been held up until all military trainers from Islamic countries have left.

The Europeans also suspect the US is either conniving at or turning a blind eye to Bosnian covert operations in northern Bosnia - in contravention of the Dayton pact.

A confidential Nato intelligence assessment in Sarajevo concluded: 'This suggests that what is under way is a co-ordinated high-level effort to cover up an ABIH (Bosnian army) covert operation that went wrong.' European officers believe senior officers in the US sector had approved the operation without the knowledge of the Europeans or lower-ranking US field officers. [...]"

"Many Serbs have fled the suburbs, fearing reprisals against them as the city is handed over to the Muslim-Croat federation. And United Nations officials criticized the federation, complaining that officials tolerate the intimidation of Serbs who have chosen to remain.

'The Serbs who ... decided to stay are now planning to leave the area, feeling betrayed by the international community and threatened by the federation government,' said U.N. spokesman Alexander Ivanko [...]"

"Hours before a midnight deadline Saturday, the Bosnian government freed 109 prisoners of war from a Tuzla prison, Red Cross officials said. But the move only partially fulfilled the government's obligation under the Dayton peace agreement.

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross' earlier calculations, there were some 152 prisoners of war being held by Bosnia's once-warring factions -- 129 by the mainly-Muslim government and 23 by the Bosnian Serbs. That would mean the Bosnian government still has at least 20 captives. [...]

European special envoy Carl Bildt said via a spokesman that he believed the partial release was unacceptable. [...]

Under the accord reached at Dayton, Ohio, in November, all POWs were required to be released by January 19. Although hundreds were set free, at least 152 were held back."

"While plowing ahead with military tasks in Bosnia, NATO commanders and U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about a key underpinning of the peace plan: The uneasy alliance between Bosnian Muslims and Croats.

The Dayton peace plan divides Bosnia in two, with Serbs on one side and a federation of rival Muslims and Croats on the other. Supreme NATO commander Gen. George Joulwan said that NATO is "very concerned" about the future of the federation.

"I think it's always been very fragile. It is one of our biggest worries. ... That entity is very important for the long-term durability of Bosnia-Herzegovina," he said.

The concern is warranted, U.S. officials say, because if the marriage of convenience between the former enemies ends in divorce, it would spell disaster for the peace plan.

The Croats and Muslims aren't getting along like they're supposed to under the peace plan. In particular, they're failing to work out promised agreements on customs, military unification, and disbanding the secret police. The International Committee for the Red Cross said Wednesday that Muslims had given no evidence that they would release the last of their Croat and Serb prisoners. [...]"

"Those following closely developments in Bosnia have established that not a single agreement or law in the Muslim-Croat federation has been implemented and that widening disputes could lead to a total split and the creation of three separate ethnic communities in Bosnia.

The biggest danger for the Muslim-Croat federation, the Council of Europe has assessed, represents the recent revival of structures of power in Herzeg-Bosnia which is nothing else but an attempt to divert the federation, the Muslim side has also observed.

Some Contact Group representatives have reacted even more sharply, and the High Representative for Bosnia, Carl Bildt, threatened with punitive measures and assessed that the formation of the government of Herzeg-Bosnia was illegal and unacceptable under the provisions of the Dayton agreement which have clearly determined that the Bosnian-Croat 'creation' must enter the Muslim-Croat federation.

At the same time, U.N. spokesman in Belgrade Susan Manuel is convinced that the choice of the new prime minister of Herzeg-Bosnia proved that everything was running counter to the Dayton agreement that provided for the putting into practice of the joint federation, created 18 months ago at the initiative of the United States. Manuel said it represented a direct blow to Dayton [...]"